data from DFER

Barone with some additional insights about how the $1.3 billion the Obama administration has asked for would be the right amount to fund the next 10 states who just missed out in RTTT, and that, contrary to some folks' perception, union support was not a key driver of which states won:

 

Interestingly, the Admin's $1.35 billion request for FY 2011 is about exactly what would be needed to fund each of them at the minimum. Or you could pro-rate amounts based on rigor of reform.

 

LOSERS	TOTAL POINTS	MINIMUM $	MAX $
New Jersey	437.8	$200 Million	$400 Million
Arizona	435.4	$150 Million	$250 Million
Louisiana	434	$60 Million	$175 Million
South Carolina	431	$60 Million	$175 Million
Illinois	426.6	$200 Million	$400 Million
California	423.6	$350 Million	$700 Million
Colorado	420.2	$60 Million	$175 Million
Pennsylvania	417.6	$200 Million	$400 Million
Kentucky	412.4	$60 Million	$175 Million
		$1340.00	$2850.00

 

Union support winners: DC 0%, RI 30%, MD 38%. NJ, which came in 11th, had 1% (see table below). AZ, in 12th, had 50%.

 

WINNERS	UNION BUY-IN	TOTAL POSSIBLE	% Support
Massachusetts	207	207	100%
New York	454	641	70%
Hawaii	1	1	100%
Florida	54	68	79%
Rhode Island	11	37	30%
DC	0	1	0%
Maryland	2	24	38%
Georgia	N/A	N/A
North Carolina	115	115	100%
Ohio	331	331	100%

 

Union support losers: KY 100%, PA 100%, LA 88%

 

LOSERS	UNION BUY-IN	TOTAL POSSIBLE	% SUPPORT
Arizona	75	151	50%
California	41	123	33%
Colorado	2	38	5%
Illinois	246	507	49%
Kentucky	153	153	100%
Louisiana	21	24	88%
New Jersey	4	387	1%
Pennsylvania	124	124	100%
South Carolina	N/A	N/A	N/A